Budapest, March 19, 2026. – The Minerva Institute conducted a nationwide telephone survey between March 10-11, 2026, primarily investigating party preferences. The data were representative of the Hungarian adult population by gender, age, education level, and settlement type. One goal of the survey was to examine what results would emerge from processing and analyzing the data with AI assistance.
The analysis conducted with Claude Cowork - which was prepared in about an hour using a few-sentence prompt and approximately 3-4 clarifying rounds of prompts - had the following main findings in the interpretation of human analysts:
Social discontent is structural and persistent: 57.9% of respondents view the direction the country is headed negatively, 40.1% perceive deterioration in their household's financial situation compared to 24.6% indicating improvement, while 46.4% trust that a Tisza Party victory would improve public sentiment.
Political expectations favor the Tisza Party: 41.4% expect a Tisza victory compared to 26.6% for Fidesz, and 45.9% would support Péter Magyar as prime minister compared to 40.4% supporting Viktor Orbán.
The sharpest political divide is generational: the majority of young people (65.2%) support the Tisza Party, while older people (53.8%) tend to support Fidesz.
Among committed voters with party preference, the Tisza Party's 51.3% support exceeds Fidesz's by 11.2 percentage points.
The political landscape is strongly polarized: voters are divided into two major blocs, and among smaller parties only Membership of Homeland reaches the parliamentary threshold (5.5%) among committed voters, while the Democratic Coalition (1.4%) and MKKP (1.7%) fall far short.
The urban-rural and education level divisions are stable: the Tisza Party is stronger in cities while Fidesz has an advantage in villages; among those with higher education the Tisza dominates (60.1%), while among those with lower education Fidesz leads (58.0%).
Smaller parties face demographic constraints that limit building a broader voter base: the Democratic Coalition's voter base is aging (76.7% are over 60), while Membership of Homeland supporters are overrepresented among men (63.9%).
The measured voter participation intention is overall high (82.1% certain participation), though compared to other age groups young people have a higher proportion indicating certain non-participation (8.2%), which is a key issue since they form the Tisza Party's strongest base.
The Minerva Institute conducts telephone data collection for its public opinion surveys using an automated machine voice assistant. The survey conducted between March 10-11 was carried out in parallel with another research institute under identical conditions but according to the Institute's own professional objectives. During the survey, a total of 2,000 fully completed questionnaires were collected, from which a 1,000-person sample was randomly selected (using simulation optimization procedures) and stratified by age group.
Following the Minerva Institute's renewed research methodology, the measurement results are weighted using combined variables based on KSH 2022 census data: during weighting, the sample is adjusted to match known aggregate distributions by gender, age, settlement type, and education level, taking into account the mortality rate in the intervening period and changes in education levels. Detailed methodological description is available at this link.
The survey can be analyzed freely:
▶ Questions
▶ Response database (XLSX)
▶ Analysis results (XLSX)
▶ Research methodology